There is a model of American history I’ve been toying with lately that helps to explain the moment we are in. I’m sure I’m not the first person to have come up with this, but I find it more useful than the dominant lens that is typically used.

The normal model that you come across in political science is the sun and moon parties. You have the era where there is a dominant party and then a minority party that reflects the issues and concerns of the sun party. In this view, there is a Democratic majority after the New Deal, and then after that the Republicans have a majority party with Reagan, and each usually lasts about 40ish years.

You can get a lot more in the weeds on that, but I think it helps to actually take a broader view that goes beyond thinking in terms of majority/minority parties. I think there have been three broad eras in American history, and the reason things seem so in flux right now is because we are entering a fourth. The first era is the founding era from the founding of the nation in 1776/1787 to the Civil War. This is dominated by issues that were generated in the founding of the country, with slavery being the sticking point that eventually brought about the end of that era.

The second era is the Civil War and reconstruction. This period is concerned with obviously the Civil War, but also with economic and racial issues that arose. Northern industry was dominant and generated both immense wealth, and the disparity of lower classes. It also dealt with concerns about race and the place of blacks in America (and this would definitely continue into the next era). Also, America became an international power during this period because of its economic might.

The third era is the New Deal era. This era has been concerned with the size and scope of the federal government and all of the functions that it has, as well as the Cold War. This era also brought about revolutions in social life that are ongoing. The Government has had a much larger role in economic life, and that also included research, energy, space, the military, and other things. This era also gave us various ideological struggles, but mostly centering around capitalism and socialism, liberalism and conservatism.

Each era was founded in particularly catastrophic circumstances. The founding era came to an end in a terrible Civil War that cost over 600,000 lives. It solved some problems that were left from the founding and generated new problems that dominated the Civil War era. The New Deal era arose out of the calamity of the Great Depression. Millions of people were out of work and destitute, and the government became active and created new agencies and regulations that conclusively resolved some issues that had arisen from teh Civil War, but, as before, also genrerated new problems that have been festering. Each period has lasted 70-80 years roughly.

The New deal era is itself coming to a close. Since the year 2000 there has been a war on terror that both succeeded in some respects, and failed in others, a financial crisis and recension, and a pandemic that greatly shook up the country and realigned some factions. It has also seen the rise of Donald Trump who has dominated politics in our recent past to a greater degree than any singular person since FDR himself. Maybe this will be the Trump era or the populist era. I’m nto sure what problems are being resolved, and what problems are being generated. Given how much everything has been in flux it is hard to see where things land from here. We also have rapidly advancing technology that could change how we live and work.

History doesn’t work so neatly as this, but I find it a useful way to frame American history, and maybe help to think about where we might be headed next.